Автор | Сообщение |
zhangzk | |
In Fantasy Last week Andre Snellings Houston Texans Womens T-Shirt, a professional football writing man at ESPN.com, wrote an article titled ‘Why Deshaun Watson Is The No. 1 QB In Fantasy’. In the article, he discussed the number of fantasy points Watson scored last year per game compared to the rest of the quarterbacks in the NFL and reiterated that, yes, Deshaun Watson was really great last year. This isn’t what’s worth discussing in detail. What is worth discussing is what to expect from Watson next year, and why no, Watson shouldn’t be the number one quarterback in fantasy next year. Snellings gave five different ways to project what Watson is capable of doing next season:Snellings addressed each of these five factors. Let’s take a further look at what he had to say.Was Watson facing poor competition or a representative level of competition?Here’s the problem with that analysis: None of these teams had great, or even good, defenses in 2017. The best defense Watson faced as a starter was Seattle’s, but it wasn’t the same dominant pass defense we’ve seen the past few seasons. With Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Cliff Avril missing for large chunks of the season and the Seahawks’ pass rush decisions failing to work out, the Seahawks dropped from 5th to 13th in defensive DVOA. They finished 13th in pass defense DVOA and 17th in run defense DVOA. The rest of the defenses Watson faced as a starter finished 16th (Browns), 17th (Bengals), 21st (Titans), 30th (Chiefs), and 31st (Patriots). None of these teams had a pass defense better than Seattle’s, and each team (aside from Cincinnati) finished worst than 21st in pass defense DVOA. Watson played mediocre to bad defenses last season. I’m not smart enough to project these defenses into the future; I’ll have to wait until next month to see what the computer experts come up with. Although the Texans face the easiest projected schedule based on last year’s winning percentages Houston Texans Hats, year-to-year win totals vary greatly because of the short NFL schedule, so Houston should have to face better defenses than what face value indicates. The New York Jets’ young defense should be better in 2018.Same with Tennessee’s, and the Texans have to play Jacksonville twice.The Broncos and Giants should bounce back as well. So, yes, Watson was in fact facing a poor level of competition last year. I expect for him to play tougher defenses in 2018. 2.Did Watson’s approach correlate with team success?Yes, quarterbacks are very important, and teams should want their quarterbacks to play well. Cool.Nothing more to see here. 3.Was he just lucky or unusually hot compared to future expectations?Last season, Watson scored 176 fantasy points using Pro Football Reference’s Standard. Of these 173 points, 76 of them were the result of touchdowns. Watson threw 19 touchdowns and ran for two more; more importantly, he had a touchdown rate of 9.3%, as mentioned in the article. That touchdown rate and the unlikelihood it can be sustained is something I wrote about back in March. Peyton Manning and Watson are the only quarterbacks this century to hit 9.0% after throwing a minimum of 200 passes. Since 1990, Peyton Manning is the only quarterback who has had a touchdown rate of 8.0% twice in his career. The average drop from quarterbacks who had a 9.0% touchdown rate is 3.7%. The average drop from quarterbacks who had a 8.0% touchdown rate is 3.86%.Watson throwing the ball downfield as well as the rest of the league has nothing to do with this. In fact, this goes against the author’s argument. Downfield passing is a skill. Watson did something that is nearly irreplaceable in a scant sample size, and he did it in an offense that surprised the entire league. Defenses weren’t prepared for an interesting Houston offense filled with multi-faceted run plays, a mobile quarterback, and creative play fakes. Usually defenses are able to adjust to a brand new offense by the following season. Taking all this into account, the thing that made Watson a great fantasy quarterback—throwing lots of touchdowns—probably isn’t going to happen again in 2018. 4.How much should his knee injury affect this season’s projections?I’m not a doctor. I don’t know. Everyone who has seen Watson throw and run around in a red jersey and decal devoid helmet has had nothing but good things to say about him. However, who knows what to expect from his knee? ![]() |